5active situations
12theses generated
92S4ESCALATING
Iran-Israel Escalation Spiral
Tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Israel intensify after IRGC drone facility hit; UNSC emergency session convened.
MILITARYENERGYGEOPOLITICAL
+14 Rapid heating
347 articles28 sources
4 competing theses
85S3ACTIVE
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruption
IRGC Navy seizes two tankers; Lloyd's war-risk premiums triple; alternate routing via Cape of Good Hope adds 12 days.
ENERGYTRADEMARITIME
+8 Heating
189 articles19 sources
3 competing theses
78S4DEVELOPING
Iran Nuclear Breakout Timeline
IAEA reports 84% enrichment detected at Fordow; breakout timeline compressed to under 2 weeks per latest NIE.
NUCLEARGEOPOLITICALINTELLIGENCE
+5 Heating
124 articles14 sources
2 competing theses
63S2DEVELOPING
Iranian Proxy Mobilization in Iraq & Syria
Kata'ib Hezbollah and allied PMFs reposition assets near US bases in Al-Asad and Al-Tanf; CENTCOM raises force protection.
MILITARYGEOPOLITICAL
+3 Heating
87 articles11 sources
2 competing theses
38S1ACTIVE
Iran Sanctions Evasion — Shadow Fleet Expansion
Dark-fleet tanker count rises to 400+; Chinese teapot refineries increase Iranian crude intake despite secondary sanctions.
ENERGYTRADESANCTIONS
-2 Cooling
52 articles8 sources
1 competing thesis