Iran-Israel Escalation Spiral
Tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Israel intensify after IRGC drone facility hit; UNSC emergency session convened. Multiple rounds of retaliatory strikes have damaged military and dual-use infrastructure on both sides. Regional allies are being drawn in, with Hezbollah conducting diversionary rocket barrages from southern Lebanon.
Heat Trajectory
Competing Theses (3)
Full-Scale Regional War by Q2 2026
72%The current escalation spiral has crossed the deterrence threshold. Iran's direct strikes on Israeli territory, combined with coordinated proxy activation, indicate strategic commitment to a broader conflict. Expect Brent above $130 within 30 days.
- •IRGC mobilization orders detected via SIGINT
- •Israeli reserve call-up exceeds 300K
- •US carrier strike group repositioning to Eastern Med
Long Brent crude, Short TASE-125, Long UST 10Y
Controlled Escalation with Off-Ramp by April
58%Both sides are calibrating strikes to avoid civilian casualties and strategic infrastructure. Back-channel communications via Oman remain active. The UNSC session signals willingness to accept a ceasefire framework. Oil spike is temporary.
- •Omani FM shuttle diplomacy confirmed
- •Strike targets limited to military installations
- •No Iranian attacks on Israeli population centers
Short Brent crude Jun26, Long ILS/USD, Sell VIX calls
Nuclear Dimension Triggers US Direct Intervention
34%Fordow enrichment levels approaching weapons-grade will force a US/Israeli joint strike on nuclear facilities, transforming a bilateral conflict into a US-Iran war. Defense sector outperforms; safe havens rally hard.
- •IAEA 84% enrichment confirmation at Fordow
- •B-2 deployment to Diego Garcia
- •Congressional AUMF debate initiated
Long LMT/RTX, Long Gold, Long USD/IRR offshore